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Apple’s iTV, Steve Jobs’s last project, may transform home entertainment

In his recent biography of Steve Jobs, author Walter Isaacson says the Apple visionary revealed to him that he had finally “cracked” the problem with TV and was working on what he called an “integrated television set.”

Dubbed “iTV” by the tech press, the late Jobs’s final project appears to be the creation of Apple’s own TV product and content solutions to compete with cable.

 

 

An authoritative voice on technology and consumer electronics, Joshua Topolsky is the founding editor-in-chief of The Verge, a technology news and information Web site debuting this Fall, and the former editor-in-chief of Engadget.  He is the resident tech expert for NBC’s “Late Night With Jimmy Fallon” and has appeared on CNN, Fox News, Bloomberg TV and G4’s “Attack of the Show.”  A lifelong gadget enthusiast, Joshua used his first computer at age 6 (a Texas Instruments TI-99/4A), and has been breaking apart and reassembling gadgets since phones had rotary dialers.

Analysts have been speculating for years that Apple would move into the living room in a big way, but until now the company has been content with the Apple TV, a set-top box that is modest in functionality, hasn’t been marketed aggressively and as a result has not caught on with the mainstream. Jobs himself once referred to it as a “hobby.”

If Apple is seriously looking at the living room as its next battleground, that could be great for consumers. But more selfishly, it could be great for me.

I live in an area of north Brooklyn called Greenpoint. In my neighborhood, there is only one option for wired cable television: Time Warner Cable.

Time Warner isn’t exactly best cable service I’ve ever seen — and why should it be? It has a monopoly in lots of areas in New York. There is no pressure on the company to innovate or even provide decent service, because consumers don’t really have a choice.

If you get frustrated, you can sign up for a satellite service such as DirecTV or Dish Network. In fact, I did just that a few weeks ago, after a particularly bad outage of Time Warner’s service.

But those providers have their own sets of problems. With DirecTV you can’t really get on-demand TV (on-demand content has to download over your Internet connection), and the company has found it hard to strike deals with certain channels. That means sometimes you can’t get a channel at all, or it’s offered only in standard definition. Oh, and during bad storms it goes out completely.

Sometimes it feels like I’m using rabbit ears to get a picture.

Of course, this isn’t just a Brooklyn problem. It’s a problem all over the country.

So the evidence that Apple is about to venture into home entertainment is pretty exciting.

The company has been slowly but surely working on a collection of products and software that is beginning to focus more on stationary experiences.

In the latest version of its mobile operating system (iOS), Apple expanded a technology called AirPlay to include device “mirroring” between the $99 Apple TV and the iPhone, iPod touch or iPad. The technology allows you to beam content from your mobile devices to your television, including video, audio and even games in real time. Suddenly, what you can do with your TV is a much larger offering.

Apple is making the device in your hands the hub in your living room simply by interfacing through the Apple TV. Imagine if the company decided to produce a line of televisions with similar technology built in. The Apple TV already runs the same mobile OS as the company’s phones and tablets — why wouldn’t a TV set?

That could mean that not only would those devices be able to talk to and interact with one another, but they would be able to run the same or similar apps.

Why are apps important? For starters, it’s possible that the solution to our TV problem is to start offering apps instead of channels. John Gruber — a popular Apple-focused blogger — has suggested that very thing. What if apps were channels? Instead of subscribing to those hundreds of channels you skip past when you’re trying to find something to watch, you could select a la carte options specifically tuned to your tastes.

Already, channels such as CNN provide apps that let you view live broadcasts, and great content-makers such as HBO give you the option of watching their shows and movies on your iPad and iPhone. Why stop there?

If Apple can bring these kinds of partnerships to the next level, it could change the entire paradigm of TV-watching and home entertainment. Instead of being locked into big, messy plans on big, messy devices, you may find yourself picking and choosing your services like you pick your apps, perhaps paying a small fee each month to keep the fresh content coming in.

Of course, Comcast and Time Warner aren’t going to go quietly into the night. To stream all of that great content, you need bandwidth. And guess who owns those pipes?

Getting all those content providers and cable companies to play nice is a gargantuan task, but if there’s any company that can do it, it’s Apple. If Apple pulls it off, it could do for our TVs what it did for our phones. Needless to say, I’m keeping my fingers firmly crossed.

Joshua Topolsky is the founding editor in chief of the Verge, a technology news Web site debuting this fall, and former editor in chief of Engadget.

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Apple’s Siri is eating Google's lunch

Apple’s Siri is beginning to eat Google's lunch. Google has spread its wings, but Google's bread and butter is still selling advertising on search pages. Siri from Apple is the start of disintermediation from Google search.

Siri is a voice controlled virtual personal assistant from Apple /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL +0.09%  that relies on artificial intelligence. When I asked Siri to find the best Indian restaurant nearby, it came up with the right answer. It did not answer with the nearest restaurant but found the highest rated restaurant nearby. Before Siri, I would have gone to Google /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG -0.14%  and searched for an Indian restaurant. Google would have made money if I clicked on any one of a number of advertisements for restaurants on the search page. Siri completely bypassed Google and went to a data base called Yelp.

In a small study at The Arora Report , the evidence is mounting that users of Siri are consistently bypassing Google. If the results from the small study are extrapolated, in due course as Siri becomes widely available, it will change people's habits. The new habit will be using voice to find exactly what one wants without having to comb through a large number of results, some of which may not be relevant. Further, the display space on mobile devices is limited. Who needs the distraction of side advertisements like those from Google on the small screen?

Natural language interface has long been the holy grail of computing. Natural language is simply a fancy phrase for ordinary language. Most of us communicate with each other in natural language.

Asking a question in ordinary language and quickly finding the answer in Siri makes a Google search look like a horse and buggy compared to a car. At present, Apple seems to be using three data bases: Yelp, Wikipedia, and Wolfram Alpha. In due course, Apple will start using other specialized data bases giving better results for search queries in a much more natural way than what Google provides today.

The day is not far, when third party apps will filter the results from Google to provide the user with the right answer without showing ads from which Google makes money.

The way most searches are done at present is merely a temporary phase that will disappear. The business model of Google is at risk. There will always be a need for an index search like Google performs, but the most common search activities will drift away from Google. The problem for Google is that it makes most money from the most common searches.

Apple has done an incredible job of integrating Siri with other apps such as contact list and calendar. This increases the stickiness of Siri. High stickiness means that the users of Siri are unlikely to switch. When I asked Siri to call my wife, it asked which one of my contacts was my wife. The day after Siri knew who my wife was. To accomplish the task, I did not need to enter commands or go through a menu it was all very simple and natural.

It is only a matter of time before Siri shifts search revenues from Google to Apple. Google recently reported much better than expected earnings. As a result, the stock moved up. There is no telling as to what will happen to Google and Apple stock prices in the short term. But for the long-term, the handwriting is on the wall. Holders of Google stock are well advised to lighten up on bounces and use the proceeds to invest in companies that will benefit from the coming tsunami of natural language interface to computing devices.

Full disclosure: I am long Apple from an average of $131. I took profits on 50% of the position at an average price of $360. Subscribers to ZYX Buy Change Alert may have a similar position and may have taken similar actions. I also recently took profits on Nuance /quotes/zigman/98548/quotes/nls/nuan NUAN +3.42% , a company known for voice engines. Subscribers to ZYX Buy Change Alert may have taken similar action.

 

With Siri, Apple Could Eventually Build A Real AI

As iPhone 4S’s flood into the hands of the public, users are coming face-to-face with something that they weren’t quite expecting: Apple’s new voice interface, Siri, has an attitude. Ask Siri where to hide a body, for instance, and she’ll give you a list of choices that include a reservoir, a mine, and a swamp. Ask her how much would could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood, and she might tell you the answer is 42 cords, or she might ask you to clarify if it’s an African or European woodchuck.

Joshua Topolsky’s at This Is My Next began gathering some of the service’s cheekier answers on Wednesday, and now there’s a Tumblr up called Shit That Siri Says which houses an even more extensive, growing collection.

Siri’s answers are cute, but they’re not much different from the “Easter eggs” that sly coders have been slipping into software for decades. Or are they? I want to suggest, in all earnestness, that as Siri’s repertoire of canned responses grows, Apple could end up with a bona fide artificial intelligence, at least in the “weak AI” sense. Siri may be yet another chatterbot, but it’s a chatterbot with a cloud back-end, and that cloudy combination of real-time analytics and continuous deployment makes all the difference.

The roots of intelligence: algos or data?

In its initial incarnation, the part of Siri’s interaction model that responds to jokes, insults, and other casual queries that are merely intended to probe the machine for a clever response puts it in the venerable category of chatterbots. The chatterbot lineage can be traced back to ELIZA, which was a primitive interactive program that would take English-language input from the user and spit it back out in the form of a question. ELIZA was originally intended as a parody of psychotherapy, and an example exchange might go something like the following:

USER: I feel sad.
ELIZA: Why do you feel sad?
USER: Because I made a mistake
ELIZA: Why did you make a mistake?
USER: I have the flu
ELIZA: Maybe you should see a doctor. I’m merely a psychotherapist.
USER: Habla Espanol?.
ELIZA: Now you’re not making any sense!

A chatterbot like ELIZA uses a mix of natural language processing (NLP) and canned responses to take the user’s input and transform it into some kind of intelligible grammatically correct output. The hard part of making a good chatterbot is the NLP portion. For instance, the program in the example above has to know that “make” is the present tense of “made,” so that it can turn “Because I made a mistake” into “Why did you make a mistake?”. This kind of productive, algorithmic knowledge about how to combine a limited vocabulary of nouns, verbs, and modifiers into syntactically correct and at least superficially relevant English is difficult to code.

So the art and science of chatterbot coding as it has been practiced since the dawn of UNIX is in designing and implementing a set of NLP algorithms that can take a finite vocabulary of words and turn them into legit-sounding English sentences. The easy part, at least from a computer science perspective, is in cooking up a complementary slate of pre-packaged answers that are mere strings produced in response to a set input pattern, which the chatterbot produces in specific situations, like when it doesn’t quite know what to say.

For example, in the above dialog, ELIZA might be hard-coded to match the pattern “have the flu” in the user’s input with the output string “Maybe you should see a doctor. I’m merely a psychotherapist.” This kind of string-to-string mapping doesn’t require any kind of NLP, so there’s no “AI” involved in the popular sense. Ultimately the success of the canned answers approach to chatterbot making hinges not on the intelligence of the algorithm but on the tirelessness of the coder, who has to think of possible statement/response pairs and then hard-code them into the application. The more statement/response, or input/output pairs she dreams up to add to the bot, the more intelligent the bot is likely to appear as the user discovers each of these “Easter eggs” in the course of probing the bot’s conversational space.

An adult user will quickly exhaust the conversational possibilities of a chatterbot that has a hundred, or even a thousand, hard-coded input/output pairs. But what about 100,000 such pairs? Or 1 million? That’s where the cloud makes things interesting.

Big Data, big smarts

In the traditional world of canned, chatterbot-style “AI,” users had to wait for a software update to get access to new input/output pairs. But since Siri is a cloud application, Apple’s engineers can continuously keep adding these hard-coded input/output pairs to it. Every time an Apple engineer thinks of a clever response for Siri to give to a particular bit of input, that engineer can insert the new pair into Siri’s repertoire instantaneously, so that the very next instant every one of the service’s millions of users will have access to it. Apple engineers can also take a look at the kinds of queries that are popular with Siri users at any given moment, and add canned responses based on what’s trending.

In this way, we can expect Siri’s repertoire of clever comebacks to grow in real-time through the collective effort of hundreds of Apple employees and tens or hundreds of millions of users, until it reaches the point where an adult user will be able to carry out a multipart exchange with the bot that, for all intents and purposes, looks like an intelligent conversation.

Note that building an AI by piling Easter egg on top of Easter egg in the cloud isn’t solely the domain of Apple’s Siri. When Google does exactly this—for instance, by showing a five-day weather graphic in response to a local weather search, or by displaying local showtimes in response to a movie search—it’s called a “feature,” not an “Easter egg,” though it’s the same basic principle of “do this specific, clever thing when the user gives this specific input.” Indeed, Google has been at this approach for quite a long time, so I expect that they will shortly be able to reproduce much of Siri’s success on Android. They have the voice recognition capability, the raw data, and the NLP expertise to build a viable Siri competitor, and it seems certain that they’ll do it.

But is a “real” AI?

A philosopher like John Searle will object that, no matter how clever Siri’s banter seems, it’s not really “AI” because all Siri is doing is shuffling symbols around according to a fixed set of rules without “understanding” any of the symbols themselves. But for the rest of us who don’t care about the question of whether Siri has “intentions” or an “inner life,” the service will be a fully functional AI that can response flawlessly and appropriately to a larger range of input than any one individual is likely to produce over the course of a typical interaction with it. At that point, a combination of massive amounts of data and a continuous deployment model will have achieved what clever NLP algorithms alone could not: a chatterbot that looks enough like a “real AI” that we can actually call it an AI in the “weak AI” sense of the term.

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